Curtin – Australia 2025

Hard to predict here – if Libs gain Curtin from Chaney it would be a massive feat to unseat a sitting Independent. I think Chaney can hold and increase her margin if Libs try and pitch to the right. Greens may also poll well in the Senate here.

@CG im saying they would on top of the WA correction the jewish community here is likely to swing to the Libs due to their stance on israel and gaza and kate CHaneys positions in parliament

LIB gain

Chaney voting against mandatory sentences is gonna hurt her.

Curtin voted for the voice. In line with the wishes of the sitting mp
The expected decline in the level of alp support does not mean there will be a decline in the teal level of support.
I would not count this as a liberal party win.

Their is a direct correlation from support for alp and support for the teals. Last time peoe were voting /preferencong against the LNP some of those votes will come back. Not to mention the Jewish suburbs in Curtin won’t be helping her out

@vader
What is the direct correlation?
Can you quantify it in some way?

All preferences flow to the reals if libs convert alp votes that’s less preferences flowing to Chaney. Live exports, wa correction, anti semitism, revival of liberal donors and to a lesser extent CoL. Chaney is toast.

I live in this seat. Last year I thought the liberals would have had the edge – Tom White has been advertising for months, the MRP polling has been favourable to him and he would have benefitted from the concurrent campaign of the WA liberals. Now I’m not so sure.

Chaney may be despised by the true blue blood liberals that live here, but she is not a controversial candidate for this electorate. She is very visible and has definitely increased her profile – particularly after the events of the Floreat shootings.

I’m now of the belief that the liberals are simultaneously loudly talking up a victory here but are pessimistic behind closed doors. There were after all only two candidates for preselection in what would have usually been a hotly contested seat.

That isn’t to say that the liberals can’t win here in, but I think their efforts would bear more fruit in other areas. It might be better for them to try and run up the margins in Cowan and Pearce against the government instead of engaging in what will likely be a resource draining battle in an area that isn’t feeling the brunt of a CoL crisis as much.

I saw some comments above re. Jewish populations in this electorate. I believe the largest and only Jewish majority suburb in WA is Menora in the federal electorate of Perth. I just did a quick look on google maps and could not find a single synagogue in the entire electorate. I therefore don’t think issues of antisemitism are as big a vote winner for the liberals here as it would be in eastern Sydney or Melbourne.

Whatever the result, the amount of money spent by both sides trying to win this will be astronomical.

Andrew there is a Jewish population in Dalkeith. As it was mentioned in a news article as a place targeted by anti semitic attacks

@John Judaism is not in the top five religions in Dalkeith. Dalkeith is much better known for its large upper-class Chinese population.

Just reporting what I heard.

What are we thinking here? Liberal gain or teal hold.

Thinking Chaney would need to really improve her primary while the Liberals go nowhere, which I find kinda hard to imagine with things as they stand, Liberal gain but if it’s another good night for teals then she’ll get back in on a similar margin

Probably Liberal gain but could go either way

from what i hear its 65-35 to the libs. even if thats off by 10% libs still win.

Curtin is a likely Chaney retain. The overlapping seats at the state election didn’t point to a renewed enthusiasm for the state Liberal party. I grew up in this seat and suspect there is even less appeal for the Dutton led Liberals so I don’t see why they would move away from an inoffensive independent.

I really can’t see any evidence suggesting that the Liberals will win here, the Liberal campaign is spending more time trying to conflate the sins of Labor and The Greens to Chaney, which simply won’t work in an electorate like this, people are educated and engaged enough to know what an Independent is.

Tom White is a bombastic arrogant candidate who spent most of the debate trying to wedge Chaney on who she would support in a minority government and further suggesting that she hasn’t accomplished anything, even making one point about how town halls and community catchups don’t build houses. Voters will be well aware that if White wins Curtin, yet Labor wins Government, he will be able to accomplish just as much, if not less, from opposition.

Further to the point, Curtin voted Yes, and the Labor vote held up surprisingly well here at the state election, the latter was due less to WA Labor being popular here, and more a testament to the liability that the Liberal brand has become.

8 days of campaigning left! Curtin is my electorate, and I agree with the (surprisingly few) comments above. Chaney retain although with a reduced margin. Among true-blue Liberals there is a pride that this area is Liberal, state and federal, through and through. But Tom White is the kind of candidate who shows that pride can quickly become expectation, can quickly become arrogance. His repeated interrupting and shouting over Chaney has not played well, and seems to be the talk of the town. He is of the “this is our seat and you’re a naughty girl for taking it away” brigade, but he’s picked the wrong teal. Yes he’s a local but she’s very much a local with a storied WA family heritage in her veins, and I don’t get any sense that the community respect for Chaney has diminished. And the constant attack flyers I’ve been receiving seem almost hysterical with their claims that Chaney will single-handedly end mining in WA, etc. We’re also not an electorate that gets turned on by “25c per litre” and so on. Now that an Albanese minority government is looking like the outcome, I’ve been asking people: for the sake of our electorate, do we want a first-term opposition backbencher, or do we want an independent who will be at the negotiating table?
(The point about the Jewish population, above, is also I think overstated. Yes there was at least one example of horrible anti-semitic graffiti, but it’s a small population. And don’t forget Dalkeith is where Gina Rinehart lives (it’s a nice house, btw); there’s a decent chance that people living in nice houses there are already on the Liberal gravy train, so their vote isn’t one to be swayed. )

Yet… I’m expecting the national swing will be somewhere in the 1.4% region, maybe a touch higher. Can Chaney really ride it out? There has been so much noise in the messaging both pro- and anti-teal. So much time spent on whether or not they really vote with the Greens all the time. It has undeniably confused the issue. White hasn’t had a consistent message, and he hasn’t endeared a lot of teal types to him, but the anti-Chaney attacks seem to be the Liberals’ real strategy. There are two questions, then.
1: Does a Dutton/Zempilas Liberal Party appeal to enough voters here anymore? Not that there are massive demographic swings here but like all other teal-ideal areas, we’re only becoming more educated and compassionate, which usually leads to progressivism at a communal level. My partner, who is an ecologist and has only lived in WA for 2 years, remains gobsmacked by how almost no nature parks (local/state/national) discourage off-leash dogs let alone actively enforce it, even compared to VIC let alone our fellow Western countries. Yet Lake Claremont has not only plenty of signage making it clear, but also a sentiment shared by most users that we actually care about the environment for its own sake, not just ours. That’s astonishingly rare over here, although I get the sense we’re soon to reach a tipping point on that in some parts of the city.
2: Have Albanese and Cook played their double act well enough? (“I’ll pretend to stand up to you over mining and the environment, you pretend that I didn’t but make it obvious you’re lying, then I’ll get the local credit, people won’t think you’re a threat, and together we’ll screw up what remains of the state’s environment for generations to come. Hooray!). And I rather think the answer is yes. As far as I can tell, the only thing that might turn centrist people in my neighbourhood is fear that our precious source of affluence will be tossed out, and if this has been allayed than Chaney can hold.

More interesting to see how she navigates the next three years. She has copped enough flak for supporting Albanese when he was a majority PM who decided to sit dully in the centre and not do much of anything. If he tries to actually implement some policies, or god forbid drive an issue, as a minority PM, how will people react to this poor independent’s decisions!?

I think it’s simple enough as there isn’t a big appetite for change and she’s going for her first re-election. The only Teal that is any real trouble is probably Ryan. How they perform in the next three will decide whether each of them can dig in for the long haul, or get the can.